Welcome Bay Ward Poll – 8am-1pm Tuesday 16 July With less than five days of voting remaining I decided to poll 100 random people in the Welcome Bay Ward this morning. The survey software says there is a margin of error of 8% at the 80% confidence level, and 10% at the 95% confidence level…
Welcome Bay Ward Poll – 8am-1pm Tuesday 16 July
With less than five days of voting remaining I decided to poll 100 random people in the Welcome Bay Ward this morning. The survey software says there is a margin of error of 8% at the 80% confidence level, and 10% at the 95% confidence level (industry standard). The margin of error is likely greater given: it was a weekday morning in the school holidays, we didn’t account for age, ethnicity or gender variables – though we did aim for 80% “European” given that is the demographic of the ward.
The results are interesting and hopefully useful to encourage more voters to get their paper back given the returns as of Monday 15th are the lowest at the same time in the election for at least the past four elections – back to 2013.
At least they were honest… We got a good spread of residents, Maungatapu is probably over-represented. Apparently a walking group of older residents were having coffee at The Fat Cat Cafe and all completed the survey there.I’ve been supporting Hautapu Baker, so this is pleasing, but Maungatapu is probably his strongest ward, so the over-representation there may have skewed the results in this question.This is the most interesting – but it is consistent with similar polls I put on Facebook community groups a couple of weeks ago for Pāpāmoa, Arataki, Mount Maunganui, Maungatapu and Welcome Bay communities.
Tauranga City Council Elections – Poll #2 – Manu's Memos
[…] less than four days of voting remaining I followed up on the Welcome Bay Ward poll with another quite different ward over in Matua-Otūmoetai with 100 random people who were around […]
Manu's Memos 
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